General Bond Discussion
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General Bond Discussion
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What are reader's views on the prices for Provident Financial Bonds 8 % , 7% and 6% all around or under par at present.
Is PF in terminal decline or recovery material?
the company is worth 1.2 billion pound, this does not indicate terminal decline to me.
I suspect the answer is somewhere in between. They certainly have some short terms problems with the new sales model at the moment. So you are right this could be a blip and the management can sort it out in which case it is recovery material. Terminal decline sounds a little extreme but from past experience often other things crawl out of the woodwork before things start to improve . . .
I think they’re due to make an interim update this Friday. Suggest you wait to see if there’s further downside momentum before dipping in. As always DYOR.
They have taken a hammering today, don't know why.
Probably comments like this below, while not directly related to the 04/20 bond it will not help.
"We perceive further tail risks of Provident Financial not being able to meet its October 2019 debt obligation,’ she said."
Morgleman2, Some good observations on the 22/8/17 link to Provident on this forum
just got repaid my October 2017 bond, phew! The 2019 bond is £250m, borrowing at around the current 8%+ to repay that bond will certainly make a dent in the P&L, so unless the companies performance between now and 2019 improves to the point where their cost of borrowing drops substantially, the lady at Barclays may be right. And then the 2020 bond holders (although only £75m) will be hung out to dry.
Anyone have any views on today's announcement and specifically how it relates to the fact the shares are up and bonds are down? Scratching my head on this one....
Another leg down, I think they need a rights issue to get cash, fingers crossed it should be ok in the end.
I suspect a good buying opportunity on "bad news" from yesterday.
Managed to purchase a few at 87.25 giving a yield to maturity of 11.5%
Sold my remaining holding in Ladbrokes LAD2
Paddy, should they go for a rights issue, then bond holders will be better placed.
Yes, I agree a rights issue would be good news for bond holders, but if the rights issue doesn't come off then PFG is bust, that's the extra risk the bond holders are facing along with the regulatory risks.
Ps, the few were PF21 6% maturing Sept 2021
sold a few on 8th Nov 2017 @ 98.45 on the basis the price was good for the risk, and that further bad news was likely to occur (they usually come in 3 lots?)
I suspect Neil Woodford will ensure that the PF group stays a "going concern"
I agree, but they will be concerned about possible regulatory losses, however I doubt if the FCA will want to sink PFG, but I think it will be on it's knees for a while.
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